WND EXCLUSIVE
AMERICAN RIGHT ON BRINK OF TRANSFORMATION
Trump could redefine GOP from conservatism to populist nationalism
It’s not just the Republican presidential nomination at stake in Tuesday’s primaries. It’s whether the “conservative movement,” as it has been defined, remains a relevant force in national politics.
Some leading conservatives have endorsed Donald Trump, most notably legendary grassroots activist and WND columnist Phyllis Schlafly. But some of the historic institutions of the conservative movement of the past, especially National Review, have urged Republican voters to stop Trump by any means necessary, including taking the nomination from him in a brokered GOP convention. Trump also pulled out of the 2016 Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, after being threatened with protests.
Though Trump has defended his policy positions as “very conservative,” the candidate has been reluctant to characterize himself by that label. In a recent interview with Anderson Cooper, Trump declined to call himself a conservative and stated: “I don’t think labels matter. What difference does it make?”
However, it doesn’t seem to be hurting the Republican frontrunner. Frustrated with the conservative movement’s failures, Trump’s “nationalist” message is proving a popular alternative with voters, as Rush Limbaugh, perhaps America’s most prominent conservative personality, has pointed out repeatedly. Polls suggest Trump is leading in several critical states in Tuesday’s primaries, including the crucial winner-take-all state of Florida where one-time conservative favorite Marco Rubio is making his last stand.
George Hawley, an expert on the American Right and the author of “Right Wing Critics of American Conservatism,” argues the conservative movement, as it has been known, may face extinction if Trump wins the GOP nomination.
“The conservative movement has been able to implement its agenda because it has the ears of Republican legislators, not because their policies have massive grassroots support,” Hawley said. “If elected Republicans were to stop listening to the major institutions of the conservative movement, the movement would face near total irrelevance.”
Hawley, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Alabama, suggests the well-funded institutions of the conservative movement see Trump as a threat not just to their own power, but to a donor-driven policy agenda that has grown deeply unpopular.
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“Trump’s rejection of the conservative movement is potentially huge,” Hawley told WND. “The conservative movement’s policy stances on a number of issues – Social Security, taxes, the minimum wage, trade, and others – are actually very unpopular among most voters. Republicans have won elections in spite of their attachment to these conservative principles, rather than because of them.”
Trump himself clearly has spotted the weakness in his opponents. In the most recent Republican debate, Trump pledged not to change Social Security. In contrast, Marco Rubio argued for gradually raising the retirement age for Social Security and Ted Cruz suggested benefit cuts. Such stances are not likely to help Rubio or Cruz in Florida, with its large number of retirees.
While John Kasich has suggested spending restraints for Medicare, Trump has ruled out any such changes. And here Trump’s views are in sync with Republican voters – a 2015 study showed 64 percent of Republicans agree with the statement, “Medicare should continue as it is today.”
Trump’s self-defined “nationalist”stance on trade is also a key part of his pitch to voters, especially in Rust Belt Ohio. Seeing Kasich as vulnerable on the issue, Trump has put opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) at the center of his message, even though the conservative movement has generally supported so-called “free trade.”
Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s senior advisers and a former aide to Sen. Jeff Sessions, who has endorsed Trump, called the controversial trade deal “the death warrant for Ohio manufacturing” in a recent interview.
Hamstrung by conservative orthodoxy, none of Trump’s challengers seems able to exploit the same opportunities. As WND reported last week, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s past support for free trade deals is making it difficult for him to credibly claim he is now opposed to TPP.
“William F. Buckley used to say that there is a difference between being ‘conservative’ and being ‘a conservative’,” Hawley told WND. “I think we should make this distinction for Trump. He clearly takes some positions that most conservatives can agree with, but he is not tethered to conservative views as such. Even worse, from the conservative movement’s perspective, is that he is completely open about this. Trump has shown no interest in conservatism as a set of governing principles. Refusing to go to CPAC this year was a very symbolic move, even if he did not see it that way.”
Marc Fitch, author of “Shmexperts,” says conservative policy wonks lost sight of what was happening outside the Beltway and so missed the rise of Trump.
“When you’re dealing with experts in policy who work inside the Beltway, you’re dealing with people who spend their lives face down inside books and charts and graphs, and a lot of times they miss the forest for the trees,” Fitch told WND. “When you start talking about free trade policy and things like that, it might be exciting for them, but for the rest of the country you get kind of a glazed look in their eye.
“I think they failed to take into account this emotion that Trump is riding on. You can call it frustration, you can call it anger, you can call it populism, but he is riding an emotional train at this point and that’s why I think you see a lot of it spilling out at the rallies and things.”
Fitch argues movement conservatives simply ignored the human factor when it came to politics.
“Emotion and man’s irrational nature is always going to win out over experts who are very focused on the mind and how each rational piece of the puzzle fits together,” he explained. “You can talk policy all you want and it’s not going to make a dent in the Trump campaign. They are using something else; they’ve tapped into something else. And it’s not something conservative politicos usually account for. He’s tapped into something more human – for better or worse.”
Trump is also winning the support of those who feel the conservative movement, not just the Republican Establishment, has betrayed them. In “Right Wing Critics of American Conservatism,” Hawley argues the conservative movement has been characterized by periodic “purges” of “unrespectable” elements. In many ways, he says, Trump is their revenge.
“Trump certainly excites many people who were rejected by the conservative movement, and this explains some of their enthusiasm,” he said. “The fact that he frustrates conservative pundits, scholars and other people who make their living in the movement is a major plus for them. Thus many people seem to be cheering him on even if they do not agree with all of his policy proposals. We should not overstate the importance of this; the number of people who still affiliate with these ‘purged’ movements is probably still pretty small. But they are out there.”
Fitch believes the conservative movement will survive Trump, recalling other predictions of doom for various political parties and factions that never panned out.
“Everyone has their own version of conservatism; it’s like a religion with a lot of different factions,” Fitch said. “Just because one wins or loses doesn’t mean anything ends.”
However, if Trump does win the nomination, Fitch says Trump’s “faction” of conservatism will be in the position to redefine what conservatism – and the Republican Party – are all about.
“If Trump goes on to win the nomination, he will define a new point in American politics,” said Fitch. “Whether or not that’s a good thing would remain to be seen. You have to look at it from the other side of the political aisle, too. If Trump wins the nomination, the Left will never let us forget it, whether Trump wins or loses. It’s going to confirm a lot of what the Left already suspected about the Republicans and conservatives in general. It could be a double-edged sword that will probably be used against us for the rest of time.”
Of course, the American Left is facing its own crisis with the rise of Bernie Sanders. As Fitch said, the Democrats will never be able to pretend outright socialism doesn’t have a large support base within the party.
“Sanders is also riding this wave of populism, this emotion,” said Fitch. “Trump and Sanders are almost complimentary to each other. It’s an interesting thing to watch play out because while the Democrat elite are really blocking Sanders’ way and doing a good job of it, the Republican elite are trying to block Trump and not doing a very good job of it at all.”
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Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/03/american-right-on-brink-of-transformation/#sEyHmvsUb9GGfwZq.99My comments: America either returns to God and the Constitution or she DIES! The Democrats have been leading America in the Opposite Direction for Decades.
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