by Con Coughlin • August 11, 2024 at 5:00 am - GATESTONE
[T]he likelihood of Iran launching another attack against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh's assassination appears to be receding, not least because Tehran is well aware that, in any major military confrontation with Israel, it will inevitably be the loser.
Israeli officials also believe that the initial assault will not originate from Iran. The latest intelligence assessment by Israeli officials, reported on August 7, indicates a shift in expectations regarding the source of the anticipated attack.
Cooperation between Israel and Russia has often resulted in the Russians turning a blind eye when Israel attacks Iranian positions in Syria, even though Russia and Iran are supposed to be allies working together in their joint venture to keep Syria's Assad regime in power.
In responding to Iran's desperate plea for more arms, therefore, Putin may be reluctant to take any action that could upset his delicate relationship with Israel.
For all Iran's threats to retaliate against Israel for assassinating key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the key concern for the ayatollahs will be that, in any confrontation with the Israeli military, they have no chance of winning.
Tensions between Iran and Israel have risen considerably since Israel was accused of carrying out the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran shortly after the swearing in ceremony for Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian last month.
Although Israel rarely confirms or denies its involvement in overseas assassinations, the Iranian regime has been quick to accuse Israel of killing Haniyeh, who reportedly died after a bomb exploded in his guest apartment in northern Tehran.
A senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, was assassinated in Beirut the previous day, in an operation for which Israel took credit.
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