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U.S. deploys guided-missile submarine to Middle East
JERUSALEM – A situation which 24 hours or so before seemed somewhat ambiguous at best, appeared to crystallize Monday as evidence suggests Iranian hardliners have won the day and decided to to strike Israel for eliminating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Indeed, reports surfaced that Hezbollah has largely emptied Beirut's Dahiyeh neighborhood – the one in which its Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli missile strike about 12 hours before the Haniyeh hit – of its entire headquarters – including computers and other equipment for fear of Israeli reprisals in the event of an attack on the Jewish state.
It is unclear if this includes the organization's leader – Hassan Nasrallah – who is thought to move his location daily from safe house to safe house, and whom many suspect is sequestered somewhere underground – and has been for more than a decade – fearful of any Israeli attempts to assassinate him.
On Sunday, it appeared Iran was potentially experiencing pangs of doubt about its proposed massive retaliation to Haniyeh's killing on its soil – and the attendant humiliation for both the location and timing. There were also doubts about whether Iran would risk a regional war to avenge the blood of a Palestinian, albeit one who was supposed to be an honored guest at its new president's investiture.
However, overnight Sunday positions appeared to change and a hardening of Iran's stance led Israel and the United States' respective defense establishments beginning to warn Tehran's response could be in a matter of a few days, if not an even shorter timeframe.
The U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin wrote on X he had called his Israeli counterpart Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to reiterate Washington's commitment to Israel's protection – and an acknowledgment he was ordering the "strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East."
Indeed, the Department of Defense revealed Secretary Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area, bolstering the military presence already provided by the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group. Additionally, the USS Georgia, a guided missile submarine, has been deployed to the region. USS Georgia is armed with some 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
One relevant side note relates to reporting which suggests Austin – and not President Joe Biden – ordered the assemblage of this particular armada, which again reinforces the assessment the duly elected president is not in charge of his country's foreign policy – or of potentially putting U.S. service personnel in harm's way.
'Sense of urgency': U.S. accelerates military deployment to Mideast
For his part, Gallant informed Austin that Iranian military preparations indicated Iran was preparing for a significant attack against Israel, a source briefed on the conversation shared, according to the Jerusalem Post. This was in spite of the significant build-up of U.S. forces in the region, which in and of itself is an interesting development.
What are the Iranians likely to do?
The palpable sense is Iran is going to do something. Again, the more balanced appraisals of the last few days have given way to a more urgent sense that something is brewing. One of the assumptions – and if the events of Oc. 7 have taught us anything it is the danger of making these in the Middle East – was Iran would likely repeat its mid-April attack, including largely telegraphing the what, where, and how of the situation. However, it seems it is not laying out its cards as predictably as last time.
What does Hezbollah have planned?
Of the two entwined entities – Iran and Hezbollah – it could be argued the latter will go as hard against Israel if not harder than the former. In Shukr it lost one of its most senior leaders – and its numbers have been denuded to the tune of more than 400 operatives since it started its campaign against Israel on Oct. 8. The loss of Shukr and on its home turf of Dahiyeh, Beirut, has also been viewed as a provocation and escalation it will not leave unanswered.
While it has not ceased firing rockets, missiles, and drones at Israel for 10 months, there is a fear a coordinated attack will more accurately and devastatingly target cities and population centers much further from the Lebanese border – Haifa and Tel Aviv among them. This scenario, coupled with significant loss of life would likely activate an extremely aggressive Israeli response – again, reminding us of why Hezbollah has cleared out of its Beirut HQ. It seems a curious move to make if it did not have nefarious and murderous intent.
One report making the rounds is the potential for Hezbollah's Radwan force to infiltrate into Israel and attempt to carry out attacks like Hamas did on Oct. 7. As a side note, Iran and Hezbollah were apparently livid about Hamas' atrocities, because they had planned a very similar and potentially even wider-scale attack than the one perpetrated from Gaza. It is impossible to say with certainty – especially given the brutality of the Hamas massacres – but they may have inadvertently alerted Israel to the potential of a much larger tragedy with more deaths, more kidnap victims, and a force which might have been able to hold off the IDF for longer.
This could come from the north over the Lebanese border – although, all of Israel's communities there have been evacuated – or possibly via Jordan. A recent article in the Jewish News Syndicate suggested as many as 4,000 people may have infiltrated along the 192-mile border with the Hashemite Kingdom. To be sure, many nationalities are represented in these infiltrators, including China, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, and Turkey. While it is not known how many are Lebanese, there are concerns in Israel's defense establishment that many of these people might have pro-Iranian sympathies.
So much for the hostage negotiations?
In the midst of an uptick in regional tensions, a hostage negotiation is still taking place. Hamas negotiators nixed the idea they would attend multilateral talks on Thursday – likely in Cairo or Doha – including the U.S., Qatar, Egypt, and Israel (the Israeli and Hamas delegations would not have been in the same room). Hamas' non-appearance can be read in different ways.
Some reports suggested Hamas assessed it was a ruse, concocted by the U.S. and Israel to try and dissuade Iran and Hezbollah from retaliating against Israel, because doing so might jeopardize the reanimated hostage negotiations.
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